October 2026
Decision: Oct 28, 2026- -Cut 50+ bps
- -Cut 25 bps
- 33%Hold
- 68%Hike 25 bps
- 1.5%Hike 50+ bps
- 0.3%Cut 50+ bps
- 0.5%Cut 25 bps
- 34%Hold
- 66%Hike 25 bps
- 0.9%Hike 50+ bps
Venues differ by up to 2 pp
Live Kalshi and Polymarket prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum price contracts, side by side with the probability implied by the crypto options volatility surface - plus market odds for the next Fed decisions.
Free · live · no sign-up636 contracts · 506 without a quote · 0 not classified
Updated Sep 28, 2026, 02:10 PM UTC
230 contracts · 21 without a quote · 42 not classified
Updated Sep 28, 2026, 02:10 PM UTC
Implied volatility from Deribit
Spot (options underlying): $83,444
| Contract | Settles | Market price | Options-implied | Gap | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $82,000 – $84,000 Polymarket | Sep 28, 2026, 04:00 PM UTC | 80% 79% / 81% | 90.2%Skew-aware digital | -10.2 pp· Wide gap | 12K |
| Above $84,000 Polymarket | Sep 28, 2026, 04:00 PM UTC | 19% 18% / 19% | 9.8%Skew-aware digital | +8.7 pp· Wide gap | 132K |
| $84,000 – $86,000 Polymarket | Sep 28, 2026, 04:00 PM UTC | 18% 15% / 20% | 9.8%Skew-aware digital | +7.7 pp· Differs | 6K |
| Touches ↓ $78,000 Polymarket | Oct 5, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC | 15% 14% / 15% | 21%Barrier (touch) model | -6.5 pp· Differs | 1.4K |
| Touches ↓ $80,000 Polymarket | Oct 5, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC | 34% 33% / 34% | 40%Barrier (touch) model | -6.5 pp· Differs | 1.6K |
| Touches ↑ $84,000 Polymarket | Sep 29, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC | 62% 61% / 63% | 56%Barrier (touch) model | +6.3 pp· Differs | 14K |
| Touches ↓ $76,000 Polymarket | Oct 5, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC | 6.5% 5% / 8% | 11%Barrier (touch) model | -5 pp· Differs | 1.4K |
| Touches ↓ $82,000 Polymarket | Sep 29, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC | 14% 13% / 14% | 18%Barrier (touch) model | -4.9 pp· Differs | 13K |
| Above $84,500 Kalshi | Sep 28, 2026, 09:00 PM UTC | 11% 11% / 12% | 6.7%Skew-aware digital | +4.8 pp· Differs | 43K |
| Touches ↓ $80,000 Polymarket | Oct 1, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC | 14% 14% / 15% | 19%Barrier (touch) model | -4.8 pp· Differs | 496K |
| Touches ↑ $85,000 Polymarket | Oct 1, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC | 46% 46% / 47% | 51%Barrier (touch) model | -4.8 pp· Differs | 16K |
| Above $84,000 Kalshi | Sep 28, 2026, 03:00 PM UTC | 9.5% 9% / 10% | 4.9%Skew-aware digital | +4.6 pp· Differs | 6.1K |
| $82,000 – $84,000 Polymarket | Sep 29, 2026, 04:00 PM UTC | 49% 48% / 49% | 53%Skew-aware digital | -4.5 pp· Differs | 1.6K |
| Touches ↓ $82,500 Polymarket | Oct 1, 2026, 04:00 AM UTC | 65% 64% / 65% | 69%Barrier (touch) model | -4.5 pp· Differs | 374K |
| $82,000 – $84,000 Polymarket | Sep 30, 2026, 04:00 PM UTC | 36% 34% / 38% | 40%Skew-aware digital | -4.3 pp· Differs | 25 |
| Above $82,900 Kalshi | Sep 28, 2026, 03:00 PM UTC | 90.5% 90% / 91% | 94.7%Skew-aware digital | -4.2 pp· Differs | 5.8K |
| Above $84,100 Kalshi | Sep 28, 2026, 03:00 PM UTC | 6.5% 6% / 7% | 2.3%Skew-aware digital | +4.2 pp· Differs | 4.2K |
| Touches ↓ $60,000 Polymarket | Jan 1, 2027, 05:00 AM UTC | 14% 13% / 15% | 18%Barrier (touch) model | -4.2 pp· Differs | 1M |
| Above $84,750 Kalshi | Sep 28, 2026, 09:00 PM UTC | 7.5% 7% / 8% | 3.4%Skew-aware digital | +4.1 pp· Differs | 42K |
| Above $82,800 Kalshi | Sep 28, 2026, 03:00 PM UTC | 93.5% 93% / 94% | 97.4%Skew-aware digital | -3.9 pp· Differs | 7.3K |
What prediction-market traders are pricing for the next Federal Reserve rate decisions.
Venues differ by up to 2 pp
Venues differ by up to 2 pp
Venues differ by up to 1.5 pp
Each contract is classified from its settlement rule, not its title. "Above/below/range on a date" contracts pay on one instant and are compared with a digital option price; "touch" contracts pay if the level trades at any time and use a first-passage (barrier) model, whose probability is roughly twice the digital's.
The options-implied number uses mark implied volatilities from Deribit (with OKX and Bybit as fallbacks), interpolated in strike and in total variance over time, and priced with the volatility smile. It is a risk-neutral probability: it includes the market's risk premium and is not a forecast.
A gap is not arbitrage. Kalshi settles on a 60-second CF Benchmarks index average, Polymarket on a single Binance candle; times, fees, spreads and settlement sources all differ. Rows without a two-sided quote, in the price tails or outside the listed options are shown but never scored.
No. The venues settle on different sources and instants, charge fees and trade with spreads. A gap shows that two markets hold different views or definitions - useful context, not free money.
It is the probability the options market prices under the risk-neutral measure, read from the implied-volatility surface including its skew. It embeds a risk premium, so it is not a forecast of how often the event actually happens.
A "will Bitcoin hit $X" contract wins if the price trades there at any time, not only at expiry. That first-passage probability is roughly double the at-expiry probability, so comparing it with an ordinary digital option would be wrong.
From Kalshi's FOMC decision markets and Polymarket's Fed decision markets, shown per venue with their own quotes. When both are available, the largest disagreement is shown.
Educational information, not investment advice. Prediction-market access is restricted in some jurisdictions; check your local rules before trading on any venue.