US Fed Net Liquidity (Fed balance sheet minus the Treasury General Account minus overnight reverse repo), rebuilt from official FRED data every day, with a lag analysis against Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
Free · official data · updated dailyExpanding / contracting when the 4-week change is at least ±1%. A description of the last four weeks, not a forecast.
Net Liquidity = WALCL − TGA − ON RRP (USD, Wednesday levels)
All lines rebased to 100 at the first point of the range so dollars, index points and BTC share one axis.
Correlation between WEEKLY changes in Net Liquidity and the asset's weekly return, with the asset shifted by N weeks. Changes, not levels: two series that both rose for a decade always look correlated in levels.
Strongest relationship: liquidity leads by 1 wk (r = 0.13, 259 weeks).
Picked in-sample from 14 lags - scanning many lags finds an apparently strong one by chance, so treat it as a hypothesis, not a signal.
Shaded band ≈ 95% noise level (1.96/√n).
Each series is shown on its own, in its own currency, with its last published date. FRED only carries part of the world's money supply and several national series stopped updating years ago, so we never add them into a "Global M2" figure.
| Economy | Series | Last data | Year-over-year | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (USD) | M2 M2SL | Aug 1, 2026 | +5.66% | Current |
| Eurozone (EUR) | Broad money (M3) MABMM301EZM189S | Nov 1, 2023 | - | Discontinued upstream |
| United Kingdom (GBP) | Broad money (M3) MABMM301GBM189S | Nov 1, 2023 | - | Discontinued upstream |
| Japan (JPY) | M2 MYAGM2JPM189S | Feb 1, 2017 | - | Discontinued upstream |
| China (CNY) | M2 MYAGM2CNM189N | Aug 1, 2019 | - | Discontinued upstream |
Every observation is stored with the source that served it. When FRED is unreachable, the fallback sources listed here keep the radar current.
Page data generated Sep 28, 2026, 06:35 AM UTC
One point per Federal Reserve H.4.1 Wednesday. WALCL and the TGA are Wednesday levels; the reverse repo is the latest daily total on or before that Wednesday. No value is ever interpolated or taken from after the date.
FRED publishes WALCL and the TGA in millions of dollars but RRPONTSYD in billions; every leg is converted to billions before subtracting, and a change of units upstream stops the sync instead of silently rescaling history.
Primary source is the St. Louis Fed FRED API. If it is unavailable the radar falls back to FRED's CSV export, the New York Fed (reverse repo), the US Treasury Daily Treasury Statement (TGA) and Yahoo Finance (S&P 500). Bitcoin closes come from the same multi-exchange chain as our charts.
It is the Federal Reserve's total assets (WALCL) minus the cash the Treasury keeps at the Fed (the TGA) minus money parked in the overnight reverse repo facility. It approximates how much Fed-created liquidity is actually circulating in markets.
Our servers sync once a day. The Fed balance sheet itself is published weekly (Thursday afternoon, New York time, for the Wednesday level), so the headline changes once a week.
The lag panel measures the historical correlation between weekly changes in liquidity and weekly returns at different lags. A correlation is a description of the past, not a forecast, and the strongest lag is chosen in-sample - use it as context, never as a trading signal.
Money supply is published in different currencies and several national series on FRED have been discontinued. Adding them would require currency conversion and filling in missing data, which would invent a number. We show each series separately with its date and year-over-year change instead.
The St. Louis Fed's FRED database (series WALCL, WDTGAL, RRPONTSYD, SP500 and money-supply series), with the New York Fed, the US Treasury and Yahoo Finance as fallbacks. Every figure can be checked against FRED using the series id shown.
Educational market data, not investment advice. Figures come from public sources and may be revised by their publishers.